Forecasting Permintaan Produk Keripik Sayur Mix di PT. IPL Menggunakan Metode Time Series

Mochammad Bustomy, Ary Bakhtiar

Abstract


PT. IPL is a company engaged in the horticultural processing industry, especially the production of mixed vegetable chips. Fluctuating product demand is a challenge for companies in optimizing production and inventory to avoid excess or shortage of stock. This study aims to forecast product demand using the Time Series method, namely Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing, in order to determine the most accurate forecasting method. This study uses a quantitative descriptive approach by analyzing historical sales data in 2023–2024. The calculation was carried out using POM QM software for Windows, with the application of Moving Average (length 2) and Exponential Smoothing with various alpha values (α = 0.1; α = 0.5; and α = 0.9). The results showed that  the Exponential Smoothing method  with α = 0.5 provided the most accurate results, with a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) value of 353,301, Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 256,729.5, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 25.17%. Based on the forecast results, the estimated demand for December 2024 is estimated to reach 1,678,886 kg. The application of the Exponential Smoothing method α = 0.5 improves the production efficiency and stock management of PT. IPL through proper production planning, adjustment of work schedules, control of raw materials with a Just-In-Time system, and stock management that reduces costs and risk of spoilage. By applying the right forecasting methods, companies can optimize production, avoid wasting resources, and increase operational efficiency and profitability.

Keywords


Produksi, Efisiensi, Peramalan

References


Al Zukri, P., Nurina Widyaningrum, S., & Aini, Q. (2020). Forecasting Permintaan Pompa Air Dangkal Shimizu Menggunakan Metode Time Series. Sistemasi, 9(2), 226. https://doi.org/10.32520/stmsi.v9i2.694

Amalia, E. L., Wibowo, D. W., Ulfa, F., & Ikawati, D. S. E. (2020). Forecasting the number of Politeknik Negeri Malang new student’s enrolment using single exponential smoothing method. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 732(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/732/1/012078

Ana Mufarida, N. (2019). Pengaruh Optimalisasi Suhu Dan Waktu Pada Mesin Vacuum Frying Terhadap Peningkatan Kualitas Keripik Mangga Situbondo. Jurnal Penelitian Ipteks, 4(1), p-ISSN. http://faostat.fao.org/

Chan, S. R. O. S. (2021). Industri Perbenihan Dan Pembibitan Tanaman Hortikultura Di Indonesia. Hortuscoler, 2(01), 26–31. https://doi.org/10.32530/jh.v2i01.390

Chotimah, H. E., Kusumadati, W., & Taufik, E. N. (2019). Pemberdayaan Kelompok Wanita Tani Melalui Pembuatan Keripik Sayuran Metode Vacuum Frying. Jurnal Pengabdi, 2(1), 124. https://doi.org/10.26418/jplp2km.v2i1.29811

Chrestiana Aponno, & Septina Louisa Siahaya. (2023). Analisis Nilai Tambah Produk Keripik Salak Menggunakan Metode Hayami. AKUA: Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 2(3), 206–212. https://doi.org/10.54259/akua.v2i3.1860

Cita, C., Sabella, A., Resila, D., & Zakinah, N. (2024). PKM-K : Kripik Wortel Cita PKM-K : Cita Carrot Chips. 5, 299–305.

Djumadil, N., Basuki, N., Sidayat, M., Ibrahim, K., Fatmawati, M., Kaddas, F., & Mahmud, H. (2023). Peningkatan Nilai Tambah Melalui Produk Holtikultura di DusunBangko Jailolo Selatan Kabupaten Halmahera Bara. BARAKATI : Journal of Community Service, 1(2), 53–59.

Fauziah, Ningsih, Y. I., & Setiarini, E. (2019). Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 10(1): 61-67 Analisis Peramalan (Forecasting) Penjualan Jasa Pada Warnet Bulian City di Muara Bulian. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 10(1), 61–67.

Fauziah, Y. D., Rasmikayati, E., & Saefudin, B. R. (2021). ANALISIS NILAI TAMBAH PRODUK OLAHAN MANGGA (Studi Kasus Pada Produk Mango Fruit Strips Frutivez). Mimbar Agribisnis: Jurnal Pemikiran Masyarakat Ilmiah Berwawasan Agribisnis, 7(2), 1045. https://doi.org/10.25157/ma.v7i2.4987

Gozali, L., Candra, S., Andres, A., Putri, N. V., Daywin, F. J., Doaly, C. O., & Triyanti, V. (2021). Determination of the Best Forecasting Method From Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Linear Regression, Cyclic, Quadratic, Decomposition and Artificial Neural Network At Packaging Company. Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri, 9(2), 93. https://doi.org/10.24912/jitiuntar.v9i2.13377

Hajjah, A., & Marlim, Y. N. (2021). Analisis Error Terhadap Peramalan Data Penjualan. Techno.Com, 20(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.33633/tc.v20i1.4054

Kementan. (2020). ’MENTERI PERTANIAN REPUBLIK lNDONESlA. PEDOMAN UMUM SUPERVISI DAN PENDAMPINGAN PELAKSANAAN PROGRAM DAN KEGIATAN UTAMA KEMENTERIAN PERTANIAN TAHUN ANGGARAN 2020 DENGAN. 1–30.

Kurniawan, R., Samari, & Ratnanto, S. (2022). Jurnal Nusantara Aplikasi Manajemen Bisnis Komparasi Model Single Moving Avarage & Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Penjualan AMDK NUCless Jurnal Nusantara Aplikasi Manajemen Bisnis. 7(1), 84–92.

Leuwol, N. V, Manuhutu, M. A., Tandibua, S., Kondjol, S. E., & ... (2021). Moving Average Sebagai Metode Analisa Peramalan Persediaan Gelas Kaca (Studi Kasus: Toko Top Senyum). 118.97.29.116, 7(2), 2–8. http://118.97.29.116/index.php/jelekn/article/download/413/272

Mirdaolivia, M., & Amelia, A. (2021). Metode Exponential Smoothing Untuk Forecasting Jumlah Penduduk Miskin Di Kota Langsa. Jurnal Gamma-Pi, 3(1), 47–52. https://doi.org/10.33059/jgp.v3i1.3771

Mollah, M. K., & Saputra, A. D. (2022). Penerapan Peramalan Penjualan Menggunakan Aplikasi POM QM pada produk Gula di PT. Pabrik Gula Candi Baru Sidoarjo. Seminar Nasional Teknologi Industri Berkelanjutan II (SENASTITAN II), 449–458.

Mulyawanti, I., & Suryana, E. A. (2024). Strategi pengurangan kehilangan pascapanen produk hortikultura. 14(148), 183–194. https://doi.org/10.21082/akp.v22n1.2024.183-194

Nafi’iyah, N. (2019). Analisis Peramalan Stok Barang dengan Metode Weight Moving Average dan Double Exponential Smoothing pada Jovita Ms Glow Lamongan. Journal of Intelligent System and Computation, 1(1), 39–42. https://doi.org/10.52985/insyst.v1i1.23

Ngantung, M., Jan, A. H., Peramalan, A., Obat, P., Ngantung, M., & Jan, A. H. (2019). Analisis Peramalan Permintaan Obat Antibiotik Pada Apotik Edelweis Tatelu. Jurnal EMBA: Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 7(4), 4859–4867. https://doi.org/10.35794/emba.v7i4.25439

Rini, M. W., & Ananda, N. (2022). Perbandingan Metode Peramalan Menggunakan Model Time Series. Tekinfo: Jurnal Ilmiah Teknik Industri Dan Informasi, 10(2), 88–101. https://doi.org/10.31001/tekinfo.v10i2.1419

Satriadi, T., Yuniarti, Y., Syamani, S., Susilawati, S., & Payung, D. (2023). Diversifikasi Produk Olahan Sayur Pada UMKM Haifa. Jurnal Pengabdian ILUNG (Inovasi Lahan Basah Unggul), 3(1), 1. https://doi.org/10.20527/ilung.v3i1.8719

Wahyuni, T., Primadewi, A., & Artha, E. U. (2024). Penerapan Metode Single Moving Average Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Potel Ketela. 4(6), 2947–2954.

Wijaya, R. A. (2019). Perbandingan Metode moving average dan exponential smoothing dalam peramalan penjualan produk keripik pisang PD. dwi putra di tulang bawang barat. Angewandte Chemie International Edition, 6(11), 951–952., 2.

Yuliati, S., & Widagdo, T. (2020). Teknologi Vacum Frying untuk Penggorengan Keripik Jamur Tiram di Desa Talang Bubuk Plaju Palembang. Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat, 3(1), 38–44.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.25157/ma.v11i2.18671

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2025 Mochammad Bustomy, Ary Bakhtiar

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

___________________________________________________________________________________

Diterbitkan Oleh :

Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Galuh

Jl. RE Martadinata No. 150 Ciamis 46274

Telepon: 0265-7602739

Email: [email protected]

 

Ciptaan disebarluaskan di bawah Lisensi Creative Commons Atribusi 4.0 Internasional.

 __________________________________________________________________________________

Mimbar Agribisnis: Jurnal Pemikiran Masyarakat Ilmiah Berwawasan Agribisnis diindeks oleh: