Efektivitas Metode Exponential Smoothing pada Penjualan Daging Ayam PT Ciomas Adisatwa Pemalang

Raadhi Muhammad Gunawan, Istis Baroh

Abstract


Chicken meat is one of the most commonly consumed sources of animal protein by the Indonesian people because it has good nutrition and is more affordable than other animal protein sources. Sales simulation in business activities is very important for companies to ensure adequate stock availability so that the company will not experience excess or shortage of stock and can maintain price stability. One of the methods that is often used is the Exponential Smoothing method. This study aims to analyze the difference from actual sales with the results of using the Exponential Smoothing method using alpha 0.1, 0.5, and 0.9, and to analyze the accuracy level of the use of the Exponential Smoothing method based on the MAPE method. This study uses a quantitative method. In this study, there is only 1 variable used, namely historical data on chicken sales at PT Ciomas Adisatwa Pemalang. The sample extraction technique used is the Purposiv sampling method. The conclusion of this study is that using a value of α= 0.5 is better than using other alpha values because the amount of difference between the simulation results and the actual sales data for November 2024 is only 26,242 KG, and for the accuracy of the Exponential Smoothing method using MAPE it is able to produce a value of only 15.683%, with this value the results of this forecasting simulation can be said to be good.

Keywords


Daging ayam, peramalan, exponential smoothing,

References


Amalia, E. L., Wibowo, D. W., Ulfa, F., & Ikawati, D. S. E. (2020). Forecasting the number of Politeknik Negeri Malang new student’s enrolment using single exponential smoothing method. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering, 732(1). Institute of Physics Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/732/1/012078

Aprica Isabella, A., Kumala Sari, N., & Nora Fazira, D. (2024). PENGARUH GAYA KEPEMIMPINAN DAN LINGKUNGAN KERJA TERHADAP KINERJA PEGAWAI PADA DINAS TENAGA KERJA PROVINSI LAMPUNG. Bisnis Dan Industri (EBI), 06(02), 60–66. Retrieved from http://jurnal.cic.ac.id/60|

ARUAN, S. S. (2021). The PERBANDINGAN METODE ARIMA DAN SARIMA DALAM PERAMALAN PENJUALAN KELAPA. JAMI: Jurnal Ahli Muda Indonesia, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.46510/jami.v2i2.82

Hajjah, A., & Marlim, Y. N. (2021). Analisis Error Terhadap Peramalan Data Penjualan. Techno.Com, 20(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.33633/tc.v20i1.4054

Hanifah Putri, U. (2019). Efektivitas dan Efisiensi Pembiayaan Pendidikan.

Hidayah, I., Ariefiantoro, T., Nugroho, D. W. P. S., & Suryawardana, E. (2021). ANALISIS STRATEGI BAURAN PEMASARAN DALAM MENINGKATKAN VOLUME PENJUALAN (STUDI KASUS PADA PUDANIS DI KALIWUNGU). Solusi, 19(1), 76–82. https://doi.org/10.26623/slsi.v19i1.3001

Husein, A. M., & Rahmadani, P. S. (2022). Simulasi Peramalan Dengan Model Regresi Linier Terhadap Orderan Pelanggan Indihome PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Tbk. Digital Transformation Technology, 2(1), 12–15. https://doi.org/10.47709/digitech.v2i1.1773

Kurniawan, R. K., Samari, S., & Ratnanto, S. (2022). Komparasi Model Single Moving Avarage & Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Penjualan AMDK NuClees. JURNAL NUSANTARA APLIKASI MANAJEMEN BISNIS, 7(1), 84–92. https://doi.org/10.29407/nusamba.v7i1.17740

Lenaini, I., & Artikel, R. (2021). TEKNIK PENGAMBILAN SAMPEL PURPOSIVE DAN SNOWBALL SAMPLING INFO ARTIKEL ABSTRAK. 6(1), 33–39. https://doi.org/10.31764/historis.vXiY.4075

Luh, N., Sri, W., Ginantra, R., Bagus, I., & Anandita, G. (2019). Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dalam Peramalan Penjualan Barang. In Jurnal Sains Komputer & Informatika (J-SAKTI (Vol. 3). Retrieved from http://tunasbangsa.ac.id/ejurnal/index.php/jsakti

Manurung, R., Setiadi, A., & Mukson, M. (2022). Analisis Rantai Pasok Produk Karkas Ayam Utuh di PT Ciomas Adisatwa Unit Pabelan, Kabupaten Semarang, Jawa Tengah. Agroland: Jurnal Ilmu-Ilmu Pertanian, 28(3), 278–293. https://doi.org/10.22487/agrolandnasional.v28i3.948

Nafi’iyah, N. (2019). AnalisisPeramalan StokBarang dengan Metode Weight Moving Average dan Double Exponential Smoothing pada Jovita Ms Glow Lamongan. 1. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.52985/insyst.v1i1.23

Putri, G. A. (2023). FORECASTING JUMLAH PENERIMA PROGRAM SEMBAKO DI KOTA LANGSA MENGGUNAKAN METODE SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE. JURNAL GAMMA-PI, 5(2). https://doi.org/10.33059/jgp.v5i2.5590

Rachman, R. (2018). Penerapan Metode Moving Average Dan Exponential Smoothing Pada Peramalan Produksi Industri Garment. Jurnal Informatika, 5(2), 211–220. https://doi.org/10.31311/ji.v5i2.3309

Rahayu, P., Nur Istiqomah, R., & Ratna Sari, E. (2016). EFEKTIVITAS METODE BOX-JENKINS DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MERAMALKAN RETRIBUSI PENGUJIAN KENDARAAN BERMOTOR DISHUB KLATEN.

Rahman, J., Faradilah, D., Nabilah, M., Irawati, L. L., & Mutmainnah, S. (2020). ANALISIS STUDI KOMPERATIF HARGA DAGING AYAM DI CIREBON DAN MAJALENGKA.

Reskianto, D., & Agung Barata, M. (n.d.). JIP (Jurnal Informatika Polinema) Forecasting Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Dalam Meramalkan Penjualan Barang.

Risqiati, R. (2021). Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Peramalan Penjualan Benang. Smart Comp: Jurnalnya Orang Pintar Komputer, 10(3), 154–159. https://doi.org/10.30591/smartcomp.v10i3.2887

Romaita, D., Bachtiar, F. A., & Furqon, M. T. (2020). Perbandingan Metode Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Penjualan Produk Olahan Daging Ayam Kampung (Studi Kasus : Ayam Goreng Mama Arka). Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi Dan Ilmu Komputer (J-PTIIK) Universitas Brawijaya, 3(11), 10387. Retrieved from http://j-ptiik.ub.ac.id/index.php/j-ptiik/article/view/6682

Suryani, D. I., SIDDIK, MOH., & IHSAN, M. (2022). ANALISIS SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI PENJUALAN AYAM. JATISI (Jurnal Teknik Informatika Dan Sistem Informasi), 9(3), 2363–2371. https://doi.org/10.35957/jatisi.v9i3.2889

Svetunkov, I., Kourentzes, N., & Ord, J. K. (2022). Complex exponential smoothing. Naval Research Logistics, 69(8). https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.22074

Triyanto, E., Sismoro, H., & Laksito, A. D. (2019). IMPLEMENTASI ALGORITMA REGRESI LINEAR BERGANDA UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI PRODUKSI PADI DI KABUPATEN BANTUL. Rabit : Jurnal Teknologi Dan Sistem Informasi Univrab, 4(2), 66–75. https://doi.org/10.36341/rabit.v4i2.666

Waruwu, M., Pu`at, S. N., Utami, P. R., Yanti, E., & Rusydiana, M. (2025). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif: Konsep, Jenis, Tahapan dan Kelebihan. Jurnal Ilmiah Profesi Pendidikan, 10(1), 917–932. https://doi.org/10.29303/jipp.v10i1.3057

Wibowo, K. C. (2021). ANALISIS PERAMALAN PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI DAGING AYAM RAS PEDAGING DI INDONESIA DALAM RANGKA MEWUJUDKAN KETAHANAN PANGAN. Majalah TEGI, 12(2), 58. https://doi.org/10.46559/tegi.v12i2.6231




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.25157/ma.v11i2.19432

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2025 RAADHI MUHAMMAD GUNAWAN

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

___________________________________________________________________________________

Diterbitkan Oleh :

Fakultas Pertanian Universitas Galuh

Jl. RE Martadinata No. 150 Ciamis 46274

Telepon: 0265-7602739

Email: mimbaragribisnis@gmail.com

 

Ciptaan disebarluaskan di bawah Lisensi Creative Commons Atribusi 4.0 Internasional.

 __________________________________________________________________________________

Mimbar Agribisnis: Jurnal Pemikiran Masyarakat Ilmiah Berwawasan Agribisnis diindeks oleh: