Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Pertumbuhan Sektor Pertanian Kota Palangka Raya

Riska Yulianti, Luthfi Fatah, Yudi Ferrianta

Abstract


This study aims to analyze the factors affecting agricultural sector growth in Palangka Raya City using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with annual secondary data for 1995–2024 from the Central Kalimantan BPS, Palangka Raya City BPS, University of Palangka Raya, and the Agriculture Office of Palangka Raya City. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationarity test yielded a combination of I(0) and I(1) variables, fulfilling the ARDL requirement. The ARDL(1,1,0,1,0,1,0,1,0,0,1) model was selected based on the lowest AIC of 0.608445 from 2,048 evaluated specifications. The Bounds Test produced an F-statistic of 4.306 exceeding the upper critical bound I(1) at α = 1% (3.610), confirming a long-run equilibrium relationship. The ECM yielded R² = 0.8749 with an ECT coefficient of −1.3838 (significant at α = 1%). In the short run, labor absorption (coefficient 1.300) and cassava production (0.419) had significant positive effects, while rice production (−0.762), poor population (−50.074), and cassava price index (−0.894) had significant negative effects. In the long run, labor absorption (1.546) and cassava production (0.634) remained the main drivers, while rice production (−1.360), maize production (−0.524), and poor population (−104.120) were dominant barriers. The rice price index (2.742) and cassava price index (0.860) had positive long-run effects. Agricultural policies should prioritize improving labor quality, alleviating structural poverty, and developing cassava as a regional commodity.

Keywords


ARDL, investasi pertanian, pertumbuhan sektor pertanian, tenaga kerja pertanian, volatilitas harga

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.25157/ma.v12i2.23629

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