Analisis Daya Saing Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Indonesia di Pasar Internasional: Periode Pra, Selama, dan Pasca Pandemi Covid-19

Jayadi Jayadi, Yusuf Azis, Nuri Dewi Yanti

Abstract


Indonesia merupakan produsen Crude Palm Oil (CPO) terbesar di dunia, namun kajian terintegrasi tentang daya saing CPO Indonesia yang membandingkan tiga fase pandemi COVID-19 dengan menggabungkan banyak metode dalam satu kerangka analitis masih sangat terbatas. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis kinerja ekspor CPO Indonesia berdasarkan nilai, volume, dan harga pada periode pra-pandemi (2017–2019), selama pandemi (2020–2021), dan pasca-pandemi (2022–2025), serta menganalisis daya saing ekspor CPO Indonesia di pasar China dan India. Penelitian menggunakan data sekunder time-series dari BPS, UN Comtrade, World Bank Commodity Markets, dan USDA, dianalisis dengan integrasi enam metode: Constant Market Share (CMS), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamics (EPD), Index of Specialization in Trade (ISP), Acceleration Ratio (AR), dan X-Model. Hasil menunjukkan total nilai ekspor pasca-pandemi mencapai USD 94.073,86 juta sebagai nilai tertinggi sepanjang periode penelitian. Dekomposisi CMS mengungkap pembalikan pola: Competitiveness Effect (CE) positif USD 21.649,20 juta pada transisi pra ke selama pandemi, namun berbalik negatif USD 49.953,41 juta pada transisi selama ke pasca pandemi. RCA Indonesia konsisten sangat kuat pada rentang 44,31 hingga 58,20, jauh melampaui ambang RCA > 2,5, didukung ISP mendekati +1. Analisis EPD dan X-Model menempatkan China sebagai Pasar Optimis (peningkatan pangsa 11,80 persen) dan India sebagai Pasar Potensial 1 (penurunan pangsa 20,68 persen meski daya tarik tumbuh 68,81 persen). Temuan ini mengungkap paradoks daya saing Indonesia: kuat secara struktural namun rentan secara dinamis.

Keywords


competitiveness; constant market share; crude palm oil; export product dynamics; revealed comparative advantage

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.25157/ma.v12i2.24172

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